By Opeyemi Quadri 
From the 2017 ICO boom to the 2022 bear lows, I’ve seen how short-term trends like today’s hourly buzz in crypto market can pull in new buyers at awkward moments.
With ETH closing the first two weeks of October down 2.44% from its starting point of $4,351.11 on October 1 to $4,245.47 on October 13, the recent uptick to $4,292.85 intraday high on the 13th offers a brief rebound, but it’s worth dissecting the data to spot what buyers should monitor closely. This is based strictly on the daily historical data, focusing on patterns that have repeated in past corrections.
The numbers behind the dip
Starting October 1 with an open of $4,146.03 and a close at $4,351.11, ETH built some early momentum, climbing to a monthly high close of $4,687.77 on October 6 amid steady volume around $45-50 billion daily. That stretch from the 1st to the 6th showed closes consistently above opens, with highs pushing toward $4,736.21, nothing explosive, but enough to suggest dip-buying interest holding the floor around $4,300.
Then came the turn. On October 7, the close slipped to $4,451.15, still on moderate volume of $54.9 billion, but the low dipped to $4,443.57, testing support near the prior week’s average. By October 10, things sharpened: volume spiked to $97.7 billion, the highest in this window, while the price cratered from an open of $4,369.07 to a low of $3,460.22, closing at $3,843.01.
That’s a single-day drop of over 12% from open to low, with the range hitting $935.35, far above the period’s average daily swing of $226. That kind of volume surge paired with a sharp low often flags institutional selling or leveraged position unwinds, something I recall from mid-2021 when similar spikes preceded multi-week consolidations.
Post-October 10, recovery has been choppy: closes edged up to $4,527.65 on the 8th and stabilized around $4,500 through the 9th, but volume tapered to $40-48 billion, signaling fading momentum.
The October 11 close at $3,750.61 marked the monthly low so far, before rebounding 10.9% to $4,164.43 on the 12th on $61.2 billion volume. Yesterday’s 13th session added another 1.9% to $4,245.47, but with the high barely exceeding the prior close, it feels more like short-covering than fresh demand.
Market cap followed suit, peaking at $565.8 billion on October 6 before contracting to $452.8 billion on the 11th, a 20% drawdown in under a week. These aren’t isolated blips; they mirror the intra-month volatility ETH showed in October 2023, when a similar 15% pullback from highs resolved only after Federal Reserve signals clarified.
Buyers should watch for four concrete signals
1) Support at $3,700-$3,800: This zone caught the October 11 low at $3,652.79 after the big selloff, and it’s roughly 10-12% below current levels. If volume picks up above $60 billion on a retest (like the 11th and 12th), it could stabilize; otherwise, a break below risks sliding toward $3,400, the implied extension of the October 10 low adjusted for the rebound.
2) Closes hovered here from October 3-9, with highs topping out at $4,556.22 on the 8th. Today’s trending buzz might test it, but sustained breaks need closes above $4,550 on increasing volume, anything less, and we’re likely capped in a $3,800-$4,500 range, as seen in the flat action from the 4th to the 6th.
3) The October 10 spike to $97.7 billion preceded the low, while quieter days (e.g., $21.8 billion on the 4th) aligned with tight ranges under $100. Buyers should track if daily volume holds above $50 billion during up days; sub-$40 billion on greens, like October 8, has led to quick fades in this period.
4) With an average swing of $226, watch for days under $100 (like October 4’s $75.52)—they’ve preceded either consolidation or the next leg down. Expansion above $500, as on the 10th, demands caution; it’s burned late entrants before by signaling exhaustion.
No crystal ball, but sticking to these data-derived thresholds beats chasing hourly trends. If you’re building a position, scale in on confirmed support holds rather than the current bounce.
Dorcas Opeyemi 
Oluwaseyi Odeyemi